четверг, 16 августа 2012 г.

Pussy Riot - what's really happening?

Tomorrew we will see a verdict in the Pussy Riot trial. So, what has happened and what is going to happen? I will try to look at this situation without moralizing or switching to emotions.

The girls performed a 40 seconds long show inside Russia's main cathedral. Their act was quite shocking for the general public. Indeed, there were people, who wanted them punished. As there must have been people with influence, there was enough effort applied to the case to make it possible for the prosecution office to start working on filing a criminal case and for the investigation comitee to start "solving" this case. These actions can be launched against a person or a group in Russia as in any other civilized country by court order.

Why are they in jail? The Russian system prefers the defendant in a criminal case to stay in jail during the trial. This is a lot simplier for the prosecutors, the investigators and the judges. In terms of paperwork, workload and bureocratic formalities. Normally, the investigative agency requests that the defendants be kept in custody during the trial. The Magnitsky case has created a public outcry, which resulted in recommendations and law corrections, making people who are tried for economic crimes more likely to stay out of jail during the trial.

Why are they being tried and not set free? In any case, just or not, there is a criminal case against the three ladies. The Judge has to close the case down for them to be released.  Procedures are slow, so before the court hearings they were in detention so that the investigators could do their work. Now they are behind bars so that the judge can calmly write her decision down.

Will they be set free tomorrow? Very unlikely. Russian courts have around 0,7 percent case dismission rate. That does not mean few people go fee from court. Basically, their best chance would be to get a sentence equal to the time, served in pre-trial detention. A suspended sentence is likely, as well a real term howether. Why does not the judge say "We're sorry, now go!"? There are many formalities in the legal system. The judge is responsible for the paperwork logic of her job. Then, it is not the judicial system's interest to be detaining people for six months for nothing. This is why, already-served-in-detention terms are often used. This makes sure that the person has no right to request satisfaction from the government. Appeals are possible, but rare. Judges also have to submit a lot of paperwork after the case is closed. In case they drop all charges, they risk being subject to a corruption investigation right away.

What do Russians think of that? Well, there are many people, who want the girls to suffer. There are many of those who would rather see them free. What the Russians are dissatisfied with is the reaction from the outside world. Many now believe, it's just the pop stars getting a bit more press attention. Sure, does not help, but does irritate a bit.

What I think? Russia is a powerful enough player for the global establishment to respect its privacy. Forget it, gas prices, military stability and international trade are far more important then abstract illusions like "human rights", "gay rights" of just "freedom". The latter goes well with a claymore and a painted face, if you know what I mean....

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